What are Dropping Odds?
A practical guide to reading the Dropping Odds tables on Arbworld and what a meaningful price move actually looks like.
The short answer
Dropping odds are the prices that have shortened (i.e. the implied probability has risen) between the market opening and now. A team that was 3.20 yesterday and is 2.40 this morning is "dropping" — the market thinks they're more likely to win than it did at open.
The opposite move — odds drifting upward — is shown in our tables in green/blue, and is just as informative: the market is becoming less sure of that outcome.
Why prices move before kick-off
- Team news. Confirmed line-ups release roughly an hour before kick-off; injuries, suspensions and rotations move the line significantly.
- Sharp money. Professional syndicates and well-modelled traders take prices they believe are wrong, and the market follows.
- Public money. Recreational bettors flooding the favourite — especially on TV games and weekend slates — can shorten an already-short price further.
- Weather and pitch conditions. Most relevant for totals (Over/Under) and Both Teams to Score markets.
- News leaks and rumours. Anything from a manager change to a positive doping test will trigger a price reaction long before the headline is public.
How to read the Arbworld tables
- Top number in each cell is the opening price.
- Bottom number is the current price.
- Arrow direction: ▼ red = price has dropped (probability up), ▲ green = price has risen (probability down), = = unchanged.
- Cell colour intensifies with the size of the move. The legend at the top of every Dropping Odds page shows the exact bands (≥7%, 3–7%, <3%).
What counts as a meaningful drop?
A useful rule of thumb on the Betfair Exchange:
- < 3% — noise. Could be a single trader, light liquidity, or a routine market re-balance.
- 3–7% — a real signal, but not necessarily a value move. Look for confirmation in volume or news.
- ≥ 7% — significant, especially on liquid markets (top-five leagues, ATP/WTA main draws). Worth investigating before the next adjustment.
The tighter the original price (favourites at 1.30) the smaller a meaningful move is. A 2-tick drop on a heavy favourite can carry as much information as a half-point swing on an outsider.
Combining Dropping Odds with Moneyway
Dropping Odds tells you the price has moved. Moneyway tells you whether real money is behind the move. The combination is much stronger than either alone:
- Drop + heavy money on the same side = well-supported move, market consensus.
- Drop + low money share on that side = thin trade, possibly a single sharp account; treat with caution.
- Drift + heavy money on that side = recreational pile-on against a price the market doesn't trust.
- No drop + extreme moneyway = the price already absorbed the news; the move happened earlier.
Common mistakes
- Chasing every drop. Many drops correct themselves — especially on illiquid markets or on outsiders where one £200 bet moves the price 5%.
- Ignoring the opening price source. Our "open" is the earliest price we observed on the Exchange. A market that opened mispriced will look like it has dropped 10% even when the current price is fair.
- Acting too late. By the time the drop reaches red bands, the bookmakers' fixed-odds prices have usually moved too. The edge is in seeing the move start, not finish.
Live Dropping Odds
The Live Dropping Odds view tracks moves during the match. Every goal, red card and substitution rewrites the entire book. Use the live view for trading and in-play strategies — not for pre-match value spotting, which is what the standard Dropping Odds tables are for.