What is Combined Score?

A practical guide to the Combined Score table: how the signal is built, when it is most actionable, and where it can mislead.

The short answer

Combined Score combines Dropping Odds and Moneyway into a single signal per outcome, showing where price compression meets concentrated money flow.

How the score is built

For each outcome we measure two things:

  • Drop % - how much the Betfair price has compressed relative to its opening level. This is the same number shown in the Dropping Odds tables.
  • Moneyway % - the share of total matched volume currently sitting on that outcome. This is the same number shown in the Moneyway tables.

Either signal is useful on its own, but their convergence filters noise:

  • A 12% price drop with only 5% of the volume is usually a thin trade.
  • An outcome with 70% of the volume but no price movement is often expected money on the obvious favourite.
  • A 12% drop combined with 70% of the volume suggests real liquidity is pushing the price in one direction.

For a worked 1X2 example, suppose the home-win odds move from 2.40 to 2.10, the home outcome has 60% Moneyway, and total matched volume is 10,000. The probability shift is about 0.0595; multiplying by 60 and log10(10,001) gives a Combined Score of about 14.3 (displayed as 14). The score uses both the odds movement and volume inputs; 60% Moneyway is not a 60% chance of a home win.

Per-outcome formula: when current odds are shorter than opening odds, the score is (1 / current odds - 1 / opening odds) × Moneyway share (%) × log10(max(total matched volume, 1) + 1); otherwise it is zero. The row is ranked by its highest outcome score. The volume threshold is a separate table filter, not part of the formula.

How to read the cells

Sort by Combined Signal to see the strongest convergences at the top of the page:

  • ≥ 70 - extreme convergence; very rare and worth a close look.
  • 35 - 70 - very strong signal; both probability shift and volume are well above average.
  • 15 - 35 - strong signal; worth checking against your own analysis.
  • 5 - 15 - mild signal; one input is doing most of the work.
  • < 5 - weak or no convergence.

These are display tiers for signal magnitude, not calibrated win probabilities or evidence of expected profit.

When it is most actionable

Combined Score is most useful in the final hours before kick-off, when both price movement and volume have had time to build. Use it to narrow a long fixture list, confirm other information, and spot late moves before the market fully settles.

What it cannot tell you

Combined Score is an indicator, not a guarantee. It can reflect genuine information, public money, bookmaker positioning, or thin overnight trading. Treat it as one input alongside team news, statistics, and your own model.

Try it now

Open Football 1X2 Combined Score →   Live Combined Score →

Frequently asked questions

What is Combined Score in football 1X2?

Combined Score brings Dropping Odds and Moneyway together for each 1X2 selection: home win (1), draw (X), and away win (2). It highlights outcomes where a shortening price and a concentrated share of matched volume appear together, making it easier to compare both signals in one table.

How is the football 1X2 Combined Score calculated?

Arbworld calculates a score for each outcome using the price drop relative to opening odds, that outcome’s Moneyway share, and total matched volume. A row is ranked by its strongest outcome score. The score is a relative signal measure; it is not a win probability or an estimate of profit.

Why compare odds movement with Moneyway?

A price drop without much matched volume may come from a thin market, while a large volume share without a price change may reflect positioning that has not shifted the price. When both measures align on the same 1, X, or 2 outcome, you can see that convergence and investigate its context.

Can Combined Score predict the match result?

No. The score summarizes exchange price and matched-volume data; it does not know the confirmed team news, tactics, or every factor that can decide a match. Low liquidity, early trading, sudden news, and fast in-play changes can all make a signal less representative or outdated.

How should I use the Combined Score table?

Use the ranking to find football 1X2 matches worth examining, then inspect the Drop, Moneyway, and volume figures for the specific home, draw, or away outcome. Check whether the market is sufficiently liquid and review independent match information. Treat the score as a research aid, not a guaranteed tip.